11.03.2026
Who doesn't remember looking through a kaleidoscope for the first time as a child? Colorful little particles magically reassemble themselves again and again.
Turn the kaleidoscope and multiple reflections create unique beautiful shapes. New patterns full of symmetry emerge continuously. Geopolitics, too, is constantly in motion, creating a world full of nuances. In cities such as Berlin in particular, urban geopolitics is tangible and visible: Power shifts, ideological confrontation, reconstruction, memories, new narratives, and new interpretive authorities.
In our multipolar world, power and time converge in different geopolitical spaces. Power leaves traces and history shapes the present. Geopolitics and communication are never neutral. Geopolitical strategies and decisions are always framed, channeled and structurally embedded, but should always be in motion.
Skillful navigation through multipolarity requires not only structure and order, but also dialogue and a constant sensitive exchange that considers all the nuances of geopolitics. Both structure and dialogue are necessary. One should never replace the other; they must always remain in harmony.
During Friedrich Merz's first visit to China in 2026, when both delegations sat opposite each other at the long table and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke about the importance of cooperation between the two countries and praised Germany, Xi Jinping smiled openly at Friedrich Merz. Visibly pleased, equally open smiles were returned by the German delegation.
As I sat looking at the pictures, I was moved—a touch of humanity and lightness seemed to float through the room. Suddenly, all ideological confrontations seemed unimportant. A large space filled with nuances emerged, just like looking through a kaleidoscope, in which a new beautiful pattern is created by a simple magical twist.
The economic and political relations between the two countries bear some resemblance to a roller coaster ride. Not much remains of Germany's former trade surplus with China. Trade deficits have reached a peak of around 87 billion euros. The US tariff policy has caused Chinese exports to the US to decline, while at the same time there has been a clear increase in Chinese exports to other countries. (+8.4% EU, +10.5% Germany, +13.4% ASEAN, +25.8% Africa). The structural decline in the competitiveness of the German economy underscores this trend. Economic dependencies, global supply chains and critical infrastructure are increasingly subject to geopolitical tensions.
There is much lamentation within German politics and business with mutual recriminations flying thick and fast. Meanwhile, China has quietly developed into a leading technology hub. Artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics are increasingly being integrated into everyday life. Robots put on a breathtaking Kung fu show, while German politicians rub their eyes in amazement. And once again, academic circles are calling for more China expertise in politics, as they have been doing for decades.
And it seems that, in this conflict, the German economy is usually to blame for everything: Too slow; missing trends. But is that really the case? Didn't the first trading ships arriving in the port of Shanghai come from Hamburg? Weren't German companies among the first to establish trading posts in China? German engineering, construction companies, breweries, cars, chemical and pharmaceutical companies, and environmental companies are still successful in the market today and they are taking on the competition and challenges of the dynamic Chinese market. Tongji University was founded in 1907 by Erich Paulun, a German doctor, as the "German Medical School for Chinese," with technical subjects added at a later stage. It is one of the leading elite universities in China and continues to promote German-Chinese cooperation.
There are a number of things that can be criticized about the German economy, such as some structural economic dependencies on critical intermediate products, for example, in the pharmaceutical industry and, of course, in rare earths. In particular, the German and European economies are struggling with ever-changing regulations and increasingly complex bureaucracy. High energy costs are placing an additional burden on Germany as a business location. But the German economy is more robust than one might think. One should never forget that the non-military economy builds bridges, transport routes, opening up countries and thus sales markets, while constantly having to adapt to the geopolitical situation.
German politics are nevertheless increasingly stifling this economy, narrowing its scope of action and depriving it of the space it needs to exercise its core competence: Economic exchange on open trade routes.
It is time for political restraint. The only tasks that German politicians and the EU need to implement is to reduce bureaucracy and create economic conditions to turn Germany into an attractive business location.
There is no doubt, Germany has China expertise at the highest political decision-making level. There are numerous diplomats, China experts, and political advisors in the ministries who speak Mandarin, know Chinese history, understand Chinese political culture, and have worked in or with China for many years.
Expertise in itself is not the core problem. The real problem is whether this China expertise can be deployed politically in an open and pragmatic manner. In recent years, Chinese expertise in Germany has increasingly been filtered through ideological lenses. Terms such as systemic rivalry, risk reduction and strategic mistrust are the political narrative. The space for strategic curiosity, long-term thinking and cultural openness has narrowed. The lack of political trust and strategic autonomy makes it difficult to utilize this China expertise constructively. Large sections of the political classes in the EU and Germany have become strategically risk-averse. Narrow-mindedness is emerging instead of openness. In the ministries, assessments are often toned down in the hierarchy until only what is politically desirable remains. Frustration is rampant, and as careers are at stake, many people are choosing to avoid this field. Many good China experts avoid a career in politics from the outset.
As a result, Germany lacks a coherent, open, and courageous political strategy toward China.
In contrast, knowledge about China is exploited pragmatically within the German economy itself. It creates genuine win-win results, free of ideology, because business leaders are aware that competitiveness and realism are intertwined.
As long as analyses and assessments of China are adapted to politics, rather than politics being adapted to analysis, the high level of expertise regarding China will continue to be wasted.
The fact is that geography not only determines global economic routes, but also secures essential access to the procurement of raw materials. Dependencies are therefore unavoidable.
Global supply chains are always fragile. The sea route is one of the most important types of trade routes worldwide. The current blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shows how quickly such economic access can be blocked. Military conflicts always have enormous global repercussions, in addition to the resulting deaths and injuries.
Although China imports around 40% of its crude oil from Iran, it still remains very cautious about this conflict. As the past shows, military interventions abroad are not part of the tradition of Chinese foreign policy. BRICS, of which Iran is a member, is not an alliance, but a loose cooperation involving economics, politics and technology. There is no obligation to provide assistance in case of a military attack, as there is with NATO.
This is entirely in line with China's philosophy and style: No alliances, only cooperation in economics, technology and politics. China strives for comprehensive strategic partnerships and cooperation worldwide to freely pursue its policy of restraint.
This approach requires not only perceiving the nuances in geopolitical spaces, but also responding appropriately. This is an art that not many have mastered, but which the Chinese have par excellence and which is strategic part of Chinese culture. China condemned the attack by the US and Israel on Iran as contrary to international law and refers to the prohibition of violence as stated in the UN Charter.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized this prohibition of violence in his speech at the MSC in Munich, saying that there is no reason for us all not to behave like gentlemen. China continues to follow the path of "both/and" in order to save face.
Both structure and subtle dialogue are necessary. One should never replace the other; they must remain in harmony. In geopolitics, not all actions need to be explained or commented on. But when war once again becomes a reality, de-escalation is not an option. It becomes essential: Article 2, paragraph 4 of the UN Charter prohibits the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state; the right to self-defense is enshrined in Article 51. This is not symbolic language. It is the foundation of our international order, our multipolar world. But if this framework is increasingly undermined or applied selectively, our entire world is put at risk.
Political responsibility begins with clearly identifying such violations and making de-escalation a priority – regardless of power, alliance membership, or geopolitical interests.
In an increasingly multipolar world, geopolitics is shaped not only by power, resources or military capabilities. It is also shaped by culture and the subtle art of communication.
What may appear as hesitation or indirectness in one culture can in fact be a deliberate form of diplomacy in another. Cultural intelligence, patience and restraint are therefore not minor virtues; they are strategic skills that help build bridges between civilizations.
Politeness in this sense is not weakness. It is a quiet form of geopolitical wisdom.
Let’s listen more carefully to such nuances, not only in geopolitics, but in every dimension of the community we aspire to build. Perhaps it may even open up new horizons.
